Under current conditions, the volume of world merchandise trade is likely to fall by 0.2% in 2025. The decline is expected to be particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6%.
However, severe downside risks exist, including the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and broader spillover of policy uncertainty, which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global goods trade and hurt export-oriented least-developed countries.
The report contains for the first time a forecast for services trade to complement its projections for merchandise trade. The volume of services trade is forecasted to grow by 4.0% in 2025, around 1 percentage point less than expected.
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